洞悉五种投资神话 轻松熬过股市震荡
BBC布莱恩·波尔齐科夫斯基（Bryan Borzykowski）(2023年9月5日)
股票市场不景气，最先跟着跌落的会是什么？ 不是所持股票的价格，而是我们的逻辑能力。 在一片混乱之际，人们总是会忘记投资的真正意义。 他们一心只想着抛售股票，以免遭受更多损失。
想想 8 月 24 日那天的种种情形吧：全球各大证券市场在开市时便不景气，各类股票随着时间的推移更是持续走低。一天以后，市场情况转好，而后再度跌落。 慌乱中买进卖出的股民，可能已经损失了不少资金。
在股票市场跌落——甚至是飞涨的时刻——牢记一些时常让人深陷其中的投资神话很重要。 如果不对值得警惕的事项了解清楚，而听信这些广为流传的错误见解，你的总体收益便可能遭受损失。
神话1：股市起伏时间可以预测
2008 年的股市萧条导致许多证券投资组合纷纷退市，但这却不仅是因为股市本身下跌了 30% 至 40%。 更是由于人们在股市走低时纷纷抛售，却只在市场步入正轨后才再度购入新股。
人们认为，在股票跌价时他们就应该抛掉持股，并在市场回暖后再次购入。这种想法的问题在哪呢？ 那就是股票何时才会再次走高，是无法预测的。
2015 年 4 月的一项研究表明，在多元资产基金领域——投资经理根据市场交易情况买入或转出不同资产种类的证券——并无证据显示市场择时对此是否奏效。 仅有大约 2% 的案例显示了市场择时对收益有着重大的数字上的积极影响。
这一点应牢牢记住。 八月份的市场骤跌，是因为人们担心新一轮的全球萧条即将来临。 过去 12 个月里油价大幅下跌，中国的经济增长速度也比预期低了许多。 专业投资者与个人投资者都对上涨的美国利率表示关切，而可能低于预期的美国企业利润也让他们忧心忡忡。
但这是否就意味着是时候抛售了呢？ 标普资本智商公司（S&P Capital IQ）美国股权策略师山姆·斯托瓦尔对此不以为然。 举例来说，美国市场平均大约每 18 个月就会有一次调整（从最高点降低 10%），但自 2009 年起，标准普尔 500 指数便从未有过市场变动，山姆说道。 因此，他认为八月份的跌落可能是比预期更深入的一次调整，虽然幅度确实大了点。
尽管如此，他仍表示标准普尔 500 指数中 90% 的企业降幅都不超过 14%。 然而，大多数人认为调整就等于萧条绝望。 他们纷纷抛售，却错过了接下来股价上涨带来的收益。
山姆还说：“不要尝试预测股市起落的时间， 对于何时退步抽身，人们的做法可能是对的，但他们却很少能在何时重回股市的决策上做到分毫不爽。”
神话2：经济强大即意味着股市强大
英国亚伯丁资产管理公司（Aberdeen Asset Management Inc）北美股权主管保罗·阿特金森（Paul Atkinson）表示：人们有足够的理由相信强大的经济增长必然会带来更高的股票收益。因为当人们对工作状态和财政状况感到满意时，必然更愿意花钱和投资。 这样就会带来企业规模的扩展、利润和股票的增长，对吧？
对长期收益的投资，随大流不见得总是有效。 （图片来源：Thinkstock）
然而事实却并非如此简单。 大量研究表明，股票市场的上升与经济增长毫无关系。 自 1900 至 2011 年，伦敦一家商业学校对 17 个国家进行了调研，结果发现就平均情况而言，股市处于上升期时，国内生产总值（一种国内商品及服务的价值衡量方法）反而降低，反之亦然。 阿特金森说：“这是一种反向关系。”
至于更多近期的例子，就让我们看一下欧洲和亚洲的情况吧。 2012 年，法国的 CAC40 指数上升了 14%，而该国 GDP 却与此前持平。 同年，香港恒生指数上涨了 22%，但中国的经济增速却从 2011 年的 9.8% 下降到 2012 年的 7.8%。2010 年，巴西的经济增速达到 7.5 %，而该年度该国的股市却下降了 1%。 就在 2015 年 8 月的当下，美国的证券市场正在下跌，但国际货币基金组织却预测本年度该国的经济增速却会上升 3.5%。
那么，到底怎么会这样呢？ 多伦多道明宏达理财公司（）刚退休的首席投资策略师鲍勃·格曼（Bob Gorman）于 2013 年曾表示：当这种现象初现端倪的时候，股市就形成了一种“折扣机制”。 也就是说，它们的起落依赖于对未来事件的预测而非是对当前情形的一种反映。
格曼说：我们可以更聪明一点，在股市投资中采用“有落必有起”的策略。
他还表示，投资者在担心经济迟滞、股价下跌的档口买入，便更有可能获得更好的收益。 那些等到经济回暖再出手的人，可能会失去很多的股市收益。
阿特金森说：“最终的结论是，迟缓的经济比高速增长的环境更加适合投资。”
在人群中与众不同
神话3：市盈率低意味着企业价值高
人们在搜寻股价被低估的公司时，经常喜欢深入研究该公司的市盈率。 这种称作市盈率（PE）的方式是指针对某企业所创造的每一美元，人们愿意支付的价格。
如果人们期盼企业股票在未来涨势迅猛，他们便愿意多花钱。 如果企业的收益增长看起来很缓慢或毫无增长，投资者便不会投入大量资金。 这是为全球投资者与基金经理所追捧的一项指标。
尽管 PE 是一种良好的考量基础，但仅仅据此就大买股票的做法也是很危险的，格曼说道。 纽约凯利投资公司投资组合经理舍法·木塔思博（Safa Muhtaseb）表示：在一些案例当中，某个一次性事件就会导致 PE 在短期内出现下跌，从而导致相关股票看起来很便宜。 例如，如果某公司的季度收入突然出现一次性的大幅飞跃，而股票价格却并未变动，市盈率自然也就会降低。
“很有必要综合参考三类市盈率。”
格曼说：很有必要综合参考三类市盈率——即过去市盈率、当前市盈率及未来市盈率。 过去市盈率调用过去的收入，当前市盈率考虑今年的收入而未来市盈率则是分析人士就该企业未来收入做出的分析。
格曼更多依靠的是对未来市盈率的衡量。
他说：“了解事物的未来走向更加重要。”
也可参考其他的评估指标，例如市帐率（指针对某企业的资产，人们愿意支付的价格）以及企业未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的利润值。 后者主要用以衡量企业对投资的回报。
格曼表示：如果这些数据也很低，那么种种迹象显示这只股票确实被低估了。
（图片来源：Thinkstock）
神话4：收益率越高越好
2009年起，许多投资者纷纷扎堆购买分红股票，其中多数股票的收益率都超过了 5%。 相关股票的发行公司成功吸引了投资者的关注，因为相形之下他们很难从债券投资的低收益率中赚取大笔收入，而且债券的总体投资回报率也很低。不幸的是，一旦发行公司突然取消了相关红利，那些仅仅关注收益率的投资者就会损失惨重。
阿特金森表示：正确的收入投资方式是购买那些红利逐年增加的公司所发行的股票。 他还说，如果每股的股息不处在逐渐增加的状态，那么对于投资来说相关股票就亮“红旗”了。
股票的平均收益率应该在 2% 到 5% 的范围内，因此对于任何高于这一范围的股票，都应该做细致观察。 如果一个公司的收益率太高，那就意味着股息支出很快就会被削减。 同样，收益率上涨而股价下跌，此时的高额股息支出也昭示着投资者对该公司的未来增长充满担忧，木塔思博如是说。
阿特金森表示最有吸引力的收益率应该是在 2% 到 5% 的范围内。 他说，你总是希望股息最终能超过 5%，但这种情况只有在股息支出可持续的情况下才会发生。
神话5：买入并长期持股才是最佳方式
许多投资者可能对二十世纪九十年代的情况还记忆犹新，那时他们买入的几乎所有股票都在股市泡沫的影响下不断攀升。 从科技崩盘与随后的经济衰退中，我们已经了解到，市场总是处于上下起伏的状态。
如果仅仅只是买入股票并长期持股，不太可能从不断变化的经济条件或特定的行业状况中获得利润，格曼说道。 他还表示：不要把买入并长期持股和长期投资混为一谈。 格曼喜欢将其客户的股票持守个三到五年，但他却始终在注意着自己的投资组合，考虑是否应当适时抛出。
这不是市场择时，但却是对所持股份的一种定期评估。 他说：要时常盯着你的股票并问问自己，“这只股是否还适合继续持守下去？” 并表示，在股市类似 8 月份的震荡时，要密切关注自己的投资，并确定“曾经促使自己购买该股的原因如今是否仍旧存在”。
如果这些原因还在，那就继续持守下去，格曼说道。 但是要记住，随着时间的推移这些曾经让你持股的原因很可能就不在了。 比如说，你买了一支便宜的股票，而今年该股的价格与估价却都出现了大幅增长。 此时，受买入并持股观念影响的投资者会继续持守，但一个懂行的投资人则会考虑卖掉其中的部分股份，格曼解释道。
诸如主要股市抛售现象等全球事件也会创造出吸引人的买入机会。 木塔思博表示：面对投资，如果你采取了毫不插手的方式，那么你就会错过机遇，从而无法购买那些因区域经济衰退而大量涌现的欧洲便宜股票。
但是，也别被便宜冲昏了头。 你不会想做一个频繁交易者。 他还说：“全买全抛不可靠， 循序渐进是王道。”
（责编：友义）
Note these 5 investing myths to survive stock market chaos
Just consider what happened on 24 August, when major global stock markets opened lower, then continued to tumble as the trading day went on. A day later, markets rose, then fell again. Those who bought or sold in panic may have lost money.
When stock markets sink — and even when they soar — it’s important to remember some of the investing myths that trip people up time and time again. Follow these common misconceptions without understanding the caveats and you could hurt your overall returns.
Myth 1: It’s possible to time the market
Many portfolios were wiped out during the 2008 recession, but it wasn’t only because global stock markets fell by between 30 % and 40%. It was because people sold their stocks on the way down and only rebought them well after the market corrected.
People think that when stocks fall they’ll simply sell their positions and then buy on the rebound. The problem? It’s impossible to predict when stocks will start rising again.
An April 2015 study found that when it comes to multi-asset funds — securities where managers move in and out of different asset classes depending on how markets are fairing — there is no evidence to suggest that market timing works. In only about 2% of cases did market timing make a positive and statistically significant impact on returns.
This is important to remember. Markets dropped in August because people are worried about another global recession. Oil prices have fallen significantly over the last 12 months and China’s growth is slowing more than expected. Investors, both professionals and individuals, are concerned about rising US interest rates and nervous that American corporate profits may be weaker than expected.
But does that mean it’s time to sell? No, according to Sam Stovall, a US equity strategist with S&P Capital IQ. For one, the US market corrects (drops 10% from its high) about every 18 months, on average, but the S&P 500 hasn’t had a market correction since 2009, he said. So while August’s drop might be a deeper correction than expected, it was overdue, he suggests.
Also, at least when it comes to the S&P 500, 90% of declines don’t fall beyond 14%, he said. However, most people feel that correction equals doom and gloom. They sell, but then miss out on the gains that come later.
“Don’t try and time the market,” he said. “People may be correct in knowing when to get out, but they rarely are correct in going back in.”
Myth 2: Strong economies equal strong stock markets
There is a good reason why people think robust economic growth automatically translates into higher returns, said Paul Atkinson, head of North American equities with UK-based Aberdeen Asset Management Inc. When people feel secure in their jobs and their financial situations, they are more willing to spend and invest. That, in turn, can help boost company sales, profits and stocks, right?
Following the herd doesn't always pay off when it comes to investing for long term gains. (Credit: Thinkstock)
It’s not that simple. Numerous studies have found that rising markets have nothing to do with economic growth. A London Business School study examined 17 countries and found that between 1900 and 2011, on average, gross domestic product (a measure of the value of domestically produced goods and services) actually fell when markets rose, and vice versa. “It’s an inverse relationship,” Atkinson said.
For more recent examples, look to Europe and Asia. In 2012, France’s CAC40 Index rose by 14%, yet its GDP growth was flat. That same year Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 22%, yet China’s economic growth slowed from 9.8% in 2011 to 7.8% in 2012. In 2010, when Brazil’s economy was seeing 7.5% growth, its stock market finished the year down 1%. Now, in August of 2015, US stocks are falling, but the International Monetary Fund predicts that the country’s growth will rise by 3.5 % this year.
So what’s happening? Bob Gorman, the recently retired chief portfolio strategist at Toronto-based TD Waterhouse, said in 2013, when this story was originally published, that stock markets are a “discounting mechanism”. That means they rise and fall in anticipation of future events and not as a response to current events.
Instead, it can be smarter to take a “what goes down, must go up” approach to stock investing, said Gorman.
Investors have a better chance of being rewarded if they buy when fears about a lagging economy are depressing stock prices, he said. Those who wait until the economy is hot again will likely miss most of the market gains.
“The conclusion is that sluggish economies are better to invest in than high-growth ones,” Atkinson said.
Myth 3: A low price-to-earnings ratio means a company is a good value
When people search for undervalued companies, they often hone in on an operation’s price-to-earnings ratio. That measure, called PE, represents the price people are willing to spend on a business for each dollar of earnings it generates.
If people expect strong future growth, they’ll pay more. If it looks like earnings will only expand slowly, or not all, investors will pay less. It’s a metric touted by investors and fund managers all over the world.
While PE is a good starting point, it is dangerous to base a buy on that ratio alone,
Gorman said. In some cases, a one-off event may have caused the PE to fall in the short term, making the stock appear cheap, said Safa Muhtaseb, a portfolio manager with New York’s ClearBridge Investments. For example, if a company has a surprising one-time boost in quarterly earnings while the stock price doesn’t budge, the PE ratio will decline.
It’s important to look at all three types of PE ratios — trailing, current and forward, said Gorman. Trailing PE uses past earnings, current takes into account this year’s earnings and forward uses what analysts think the company will earn in the future.
Gorman relies most heavily on the forward PE measure.
“It’s a lot more important to know what things will look like in the future,” he said.
Also look at other valuation metrics, such as price-to-book (the price people are willing to pay for the value of the company’s assets) and enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). The latter measures a company’s return on investment.
If these numbers are also low, then it is a good indication that the stock is undervalued, said Gorman.
Myth 4: Higher yields are better
Since 2009, many investors have piled into dividend paying stocks, many of which have yields of 5% or higher. They were attracted to these companies because it was hard to make money in bonds thanks to low yields, and overall portfolio returns were low, too.
Unfortunately, those who only looked at yield suffered if those dividends were suddenly cut by the company.
The right way to invest for income is to buy shares of companies that increase their dividends year after year, said Atkinson. It is a “red flag” if dividend cents per share is not increasing, he said.
Average yields are the 2% and 5% range, so anything above that should to be scrutinised. If a company’s yield is too high, that could be a sign that the payout will soon be slashed. As well, yields rise when stock prices fall, so a high payout could indicate that investors are worried about future growth at the company, said Muhtaseb.
The most attractive yields are within that 2% to 5% range, said Atkinson. You eventually want the dividend to exceed that 5%, but only if the payout is sustainable, he said.
Myth 5: Buy and hold is the best
Many investors will fondly remember the 1990s, when nearly everything they bought rose in value amid a stock market bubble. As we’ve learned from the tech crash and the subsequent recession, markets go up, they go down and then they go back up again.
If you just buy and hold your stocks, you won’t be able to profit from changing economic conditions or sector-specific situations, said Gorman. Don’t confuse buy-and-hold with investing for the long term, he said.
Gorman likes to hold his clients’ stocks for between three and five years, but he’s always looking at his portfolio to see if he should sell.
This is not market timing, but rather a regular evaluation of your holdings. Look at a stock and ask, “is this still right for me?” said Gorman. When markets take a tumble, as they did in August, look at your investments and decide if “the reasons that compelled me to buy this investment today still apply,” he said.
If they do, then hang on, he says. But remember that over time, those reasons may not continue to hold. Say you bought something that was cheap, but the stock price and valuations rose dramatically in a year. Buy-and-hold inventors would hang on, but a savvy investor should be thinking about selling some shares instead, he said.
Global events — like a major market selloff — could also create attractive buying opportunities. If you take a hands-off approach to investing, then you would have missed out on a chance to buy shares of cheap European stocks that popped up during that region’s recession, said Muhtaseb.
Don’t get too excited, though. You don’t want to be a frequent trader either. “It’s never all-in or all-out,” he said. “Gradualism is best.”