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特斯拉还是那个不可阻挡的电动汽车霸主吗

Tesla’s Troubles Raise Questions About Its Invincibility

[2024年3月21日] 来源:NY Times  整理:Geilien.cn   字号 [] [] []  
MELISSA EDDY
特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克上周到访公司在柏林附近的工厂。
特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克上周到访公司在柏林附近的工厂。 Odd Andersen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Elon Musk appeared to be in a defiant mood Wednesday when he stood before employees at Tesla’s factory near Berlin a week after an arsonist set fire to a high-voltage power pylon and brought production to a standstill.
周三在柏林附近一家特斯拉工厂,站在员工们面前的埃隆·马斯克露出目空一切的神情,此前一周,有人纵火焚烧了一座高压电塔,导致工厂停工。


“They can’t stop us,” Mr. Musk, the company’s chief executive, told workers in a giant tent beside the plant.
“他们阻止不了我们,”特斯拉首席执行官马斯克在工厂旁一座巨大的帐篷里对工人们说。


But there are proliferating signs that Tesla may not be as unstoppable as it once seemed. The company’s car sales are no longer growing at a torrid pace. Chinese automakers and established brands like BMW and Volkswagen are flooding the market with electric cars. And Tesla has been slow to respond with new models.
然而越来越多的迹象表明,特斯拉可能已经不像曾经表现的那样不可阻挡了。汽车销量的增长不再那么迅猛。中国车厂和宝马、大众这样的老牌企业在向市场投放大量的电动车。特斯拉迟迟没能用新款予以回应。


Mr. Musk’s many outside ventures, and his penchant for making polarizing political statements and attacking people he disagrees with, have raised questions about how focused he remains on managing Tesla. Wall Street is increasingly concerned about the company: Tesla’s share price has lost one-third of its value this year even as major stock indexes have hit record highs.
马斯克还有不少其他企业项目,再加上他热衷于发表极端的政治言论,攻击与他意见相左的人,导致人们怀疑他能有多少精力用在特斯拉的管理上。华尔街对这家公司的担忧与日俱增:特斯拉的股价今年已经跌了三分之一,尽管主要股指正在创纪录的高位。

“A bet on Tesla has always been a bet on Mr. Musk,” said Eric Talley, a professor at Columbia Law School who focuses on corporate law, governance and finance.
“赌特斯拉赢,就是赌马斯克赢,向来如此,”研究企业法律、治理和财务的哥伦比亚法学院教授埃里克·塔尔利说。


In an interview with the former television anchor Don Lemon that streamed online on Monday, Mr. Musk brushed off the drop in the company’s share price as part of the cycle.
在周一通过流媒体发布的一则前电视主持人唐·莱蒙的访谈中,马斯克说公司股价的下滑只是周期性的调整。


“The stocks go up and down, but what really matters is are we making and delivering great products,” Mr. Musk said.
“股票有涨有跌,真正重要的是我们在制造和交付伟大的产品,”马斯克说。


The weeklong production stop at Tesla’s factory in Grünheide, its second this year, was only a temporary setback. But the decline in the share price indicates that investors are reassessing Tesla’s long-term prospects and are no longer certain that the company — still worth more than any other carmaker — will one day dominate the industry.
格吕海德工厂持续一周的停产是暂时的不顺(这是今年特斯拉第二次出现这种情况)。股价的下滑却表明,投资者在重新评估特斯拉的远景,他们不再确信公司——目前仍是市值最高的车企——有朝一日能主宰这个产业。


Mr. Musk can take much of the credit for goading other automakers to focus on electric cars, proving that they could be practical, profitable and fun. Tesla’s Model Y sport utility vehicle was the best-selling car of any kind in the world last year.
其它车厂之所以会将注意力转向电动车,马斯克有相当一部分功劳,他证明了电动车的实用性,可以从中赚到钱并且有趣味。特斯拉的Model Y运动型多用途车是去年全世界所有车型中销量最高的一款车。


But Tesla has not added a mass-market vehicle to its lineup since the Model Y went on sale in 2020. Chinese automakers like BYD, SAIC and Geely Auto are bringing out dozens of new models. Analysts said Tesla’s Cybertruck, a futuristic pickup that went on sale in limited numbers last year, would probably appeal to a relatively narrow set of buyers given its high price and unconventional design. And while Tesla is working on an electric car that would cost around $25,000, it is not expected to go on sale in large numbers until 2026.
然而自从2020年Model Y开售后,特斯拉就再也没有推出面向大众市场的新车型。比亚迪、上汽、吉利等中国车厂则推出了数十款新车。分析师说,由于昂贵的价格和别具一格的设计,特斯拉去年开始限量发售的未来主义皮卡车Cybertruck只会吸引一小部分买家。特斯拉正在开发一款售价在2.5万美元左右的电动车,不过预计要等到2026年才能放量销售。


“I’m a little surprised at this point there hasn’t been the next thing,” said Michael Lenox, a professor of business administration at the University of Virginia who studies industries undergoing technological upheaval.
“到现在还没拿出新款,这让我有些意外,”弗吉尼亚大学商业管理教授迈克尔·莱诺克斯说,他在研究正经历技术剧变的产业。

Tesla has repeatedly adjusted prices in response to demand, cutting them to boost sales and then sometimes raising them again. While the cuts have helped make electric cars more affordable, analysts say the strategy has eroded the company’s profits without doing much to increase revenue. The cuts have also sharply lowered the resale value of Tesla cars, because no one pays more for a used car than a new one.
特斯拉会根据需求的变化反复调整价格,在需要促进销量时降价,有时候又会再次涨价。降价有助于电动车的普及,但分析师说,这种策略侵蚀了公司的利润,同时又没能增加多少营收。降价还大大降低了特斯拉汽车的转售价值,因为没人会用比新车还贵的钱买一辆二手车。


The strategy trains potential buyers “to wait for a deal,” Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund, said on X. Mr. Black, who has more than 400,000 followers on X, which Mr. Musk owns, has long been a Tesla optimist, but the fund recently sold some of its shares in the company.
降价策略还让潜在买家学会了“等打折”,未来基金的管理合伙人盖里·布莱克在X上说。布莱克在马斯克拥有的X上有超过40万关注者,长期以来一直非常看好特斯拉,不过他的基金最近卖掉了一部分特斯拉的股票。


Tesla faces particularly intense competition in China, the world’s largest car market, where more than one-third of new car sales are electric. BYD surpassed Tesla in global electric vehicle sales in the last three months of 2023 with a broad array of sedans, sport utility vehicles and cheap subcompacts. Its Seagull model sells for less than $12,000 in China.
特斯拉在全球最大汽车市场中国面临格外激烈的竞争,那里的新车销售有超过三分之一是电动车。比亚迪在2023年最后三个月的全球电动车销量超过了特斯拉,其出品包括种类繁多的轿车、运动型多用途车和廉价的超小型汽车。其海鸥系列在中国的价格不到1.2万美元。

去年慕尼黑车展上的一辆比亚迪电动车。比亚迪的电动车销量已经超越特斯拉。
去年慕尼黑车展上的一辆比亚迪电动车。比亚迪的电动车销量已经超越特斯拉。 Felix Schmitt for The New York Times


Even after Tesla’s price cuts, the Model 3 sedans and the Model Y S.U.V.s made at a factory in Shanghai are far more expensive than many Chinese models. European and Chinese automakers are also introducing new electric vehicles at a dizzying rate. More than 150 will go on sale by the end of the year, according to HSBC.
即使在降价后,特斯拉在上海工厂生产的Model 3轿车和Model Y运动型多用途车也还是比许多中国品牌贵得多。欧洲和中国车厂还在以令人眼花缭乱的速度推出新款。据汇丰银行的数据,今年内会有超过150款车上市。


At the same time, Tesla is not well positioned to compete in the luxury market because its cars don’t offer as many amenities as cars made by the likes of BMW or Mercedes-Benz, said John Helveston, an assistant professor of engineering management at George Washington University who has studied Chinese car-buying habits.
与此同时,乔治·华盛顿大学研究中国汽车购买习惯的工程管理助理教授约翰·海尔韦斯顿说,特斯拉在高端市场也不容乐观,因为它的车不像宝马或奔驰等车厂的出品那样,能提供很多的舒适享受。


“In China, there are so many great options that Tesla just falls in the middle,” Mr. Helveston said. “It’s an overpriced car for the luxury you get out of it.”
“在中国有太多好选择了,特斯拉属于不上不下,”海尔韦斯顿说。“从它能提供的奢侈来看,它的价格过高了。”


Tesla has not told investors how it will regain ground in China, which generates the bulk of its sales. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
特斯拉销量有一大部分来自中国,公司没有告诉投资者打算如何夺回在那里的失地。公司没有回应置评请求。


“What will they pull out of their toolbox other than price cuts to keep them in the mix in 2024?” asked Tu Le, managing director of Sino Auto Insights, a research firm. “The price-cut tool has lost its effectiveness.”
“除了降价,2024年他们还能拿出什么办法来保持自己的竞争力呢?”研究机构中国Sino Auto Insights的涂乐说。“降价这个手段已经失效。”


Mr. Musk’s disdain for the established way of doing things, as well as his love of big engineering challenges, has made it difficult for Tesla to bring out new products quickly, Mr. Helveston said. The Cybertruck is an example. It is made of stainless steel, which resists rust better than conventional steel but is notoriously difficult to work with. The truck arrived two years behind schedule and took up resources that could have been used for products with broader appeal.
海尔韦斯顿说,马斯克做事不喜欢走寻常路,同时又对重大的工程挑战十分着迷,这导致特斯拉很难快速拿出新产品。Cybertruck就是一个例子。这款车使用不锈钢制造,这种材料不像普通钢材那么易生锈,但生产上出名了的难以驾驭。它的推出比计划晚了两年,占据了许多资源,而这些资源本可以用于研发受众面更广的产品。


“Tesla could be doing far better than it is if they had been less aggressive in trying to do everything new and used half the knowledge out there that works,” Mr. Helveston said.
“如果稍微不要那么激进,不要什么都是新的,有一半是用已有的、可行的知识,那特斯拉的处境会比现在好得多,”海尔韦斯顿说。


But doing new things excites Mr. Musk, who chuckled with glee when telling Mr. Lemon about the revamped version of the company’s Roadster sports car, which he said Tesla planned to bring out at the end of the year. The vehicle will combine technology from Tesla and his rocket company, SpaceX, “to create something that’s not really a car,” he said.
但尝试新事物让马斯克感到兴奋,在向莱蒙介绍该公司Roadster跑车的改进型时,他笑得很开心。他说,特斯拉计划在今年年底推出这款跑车。它将结合特斯拉和他的火箭公司SpaceX的技术,“创造出一种其实已经不是汽车的东西,”他说。


In Europe, the Model Y was the best-selling electric car last year. But Volkswagen and its Audi, Skoda and SEAT brands together sold more electric vehicles than Tesla on the continent, according to Schmidt Automotive Research. Sales of the Model Y fell at the end of the year after Germany and other countries cut subsidies.
在欧洲,Model Y是去年最畅销的电动汽车。但根据施密特汽车研究公司的数据,大众及其旗下奥迪、斯柯达和西亚特品牌在非洲大陆的电动汽车销量加起来超过了特斯拉。在德国和其他国家削减补贴后,Model Y销量在年底有所下降。


Tesla could also suffer from restrictions that the European Union is considering imposing on Chinese imports. All Model 3 sedans sold in Europe and the right-hand-drive Model Y for Britain are imported from Shanghai. Tesla accounts for one of every four Chinese-made cars imported by Europe, according to Schmidt.
特斯拉还可能受到欧盟正在考虑对中国进口产品实施限制的影响。在欧洲销售的所有Model 3轿车和在英国销售的右舵Model Y轿车都是从上海进口的。施密特表示,欧洲进口的每四辆中国制造汽车中就有一辆是特斯拉制造的。

特斯拉自2020年Model Y上市后再也没有推出面向大众市场的汽车。
特斯拉自2020年Model Y上市后再也没有推出面向大众市场的汽车。 Pool photo by Patrick Pleul


“This would narrow what has been impressive, but nonetheless narrowing, profit margins and make a more even playing field for European automakers that have been manufacturing locally,” said Matthias Schmidt, founder of the research firm. He noted that France had taken protectionist policies a step further by restricting government subsidies for purchases of electric vehicles to those produced in the European Union. Italy has indicated it may do the same.
该研究公司的创始人马蒂亚斯·施密特说,“这将降低净利率,它的净利率是相当可观的,但终归是在下降,此外还会给一直在本地生产的欧洲汽车制造商创造一个更公平的竞争环境。”他指出,法国进一步采取了保护主义政策,将购买电动汽车的政府补贴限制于在欧盟生产的汽车。意大利也表示可能采取同样的措施。


Mr. Musk is also a source of uncertainty. In January a Delaware judge struck down his pay package, worth more than $50 billion, saying Tesla’s board of directors used a flawed process in negotiating his compensation. In response, Mr. Musk threatened to move Tesla’s corporate registration from Delaware to Texas.
马斯克也是不确定性的来源。今年1月,特拉华州的一名法官否决了他价值超过500亿美元的薪酬方案,称特斯拉董事会关于他的薪酬谈判程序存有缺陷。作为回应,马斯克威胁要将特斯拉的公司注册地从特拉华州迁至得克萨斯州。


Tesla’s board has not unveiled a new pay package for him. Mr. Musk, who oversees SpaceX and several other businesses in addition to Tesla and X, has threatened to pursue unspecified new ventures outside Tesla unless he is given control over 25 percent of the company. He currently owns about 13 percent.
特斯拉董事会尚未公布他新的薪酬方案。除了特斯拉和X之外,马斯克还管理着SpaceX和其他几家企业。他威胁说,除非获得特斯拉25%的控制权,否则他会转去从事特斯拉以外的其他新项目,但未具体说明是什么。他目前拥有约13%的股份。


“You now have a grumpy C.E.O.,” said Mr. Talley of Columbia Law School. “What does that portend for the ability of Tesla to command Mr. Musk’s attention? Is it possible he would just disengage from the company?”
“你现在有一个性情乖戾的首席执行官,”哥伦比亚大学法学院的塔利说。“从中是否能看出,特斯拉能在多大程度上吸引马斯克的注意力?他会不会直接离开公司?”


Mr. Musk’s whistle-stop visit to Grünheide appeared timed to show employees in Germany, some of whom had voiced concern about their safety after the arson, that he remains committed to the company and the factory. The plant is producing around 300,000 cars per year, but aims to expand that to as many as one million.
短暂的格吕海德之行似乎是为了向德国员工表明他仍然致力于公司和工厂的发展。纵火案发生后,其中一些员工对自身安全表示了担忧。该工厂每年生产约30万辆汽车,但目标是将产量扩大到100万辆。


Asked by reporters whether he intended to stick to that plan, Mr. Musk responded, “Yes, absolutely.”
当记者问到他是否打算坚持这个计划时,马斯克回答说,“是的,绝对坚持。”


Mara Hvistendahl对本文有报道贡献。


Melissa Eddy驻柏林,报道德国政治、商业和经济新闻。


翻译:晋其角、杜然